Bills-Patriots Spread
Since 1960, the Patriots and Bills have battled on the gridiron over 120 times. Will the New England Patriots sustain their dominance over the Buffalo Bills in the post-Tom Brady era? After reviewing the Bills-Patriots spread, which team should you pick to win the next AFC East matchup?
If you’re new to football betting, making bets on the Patriots-Bills spread can seem as tough as winning more Super Bowls than the Pats. Learning the fundamentals of NFL betting can provide a better chance of making successful bets.
Keep reading to learn about game statistics of the last Bills-Patriots game, recent betting trends, all-time series facts, and how to bet on New England vs. Buffalo games.
Bills vs. Patriots: Past Game Stats
Week 16 (2020)
Moneyline: BUF -105, NE -115
Point Spread: BUF -7, NE +7
Over/Under: 45
Result: The Bills defeated the Patriots 38-9, so they covered the spread. The total score was 47, so the game went over.
In Week 16, the Buffalo Bills were poised to continue their success in road games in a Monday Night Football game (MNF) versus the New England Patriots.
Some key players in the game include:
- Cornerback Jason McCourty
- RB Zack Moss
- WR Cole Beasley
- WR John Brown
- WR Gabriel Davis
- RB Devon Singletary
Buffalo Bills
The Bills already secured the AFC East title last week after making offseason moves, including free agency options.
The Bills could secure a No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win. Buffalo tried to continue its four-game winning streak.
The Bills were 11-3 overall and 5-2 in road games during the 2020 season.
Since their bye week, the Bills improved in areas like the defensive line and linebackers.
As reported on some NFL podcasts, more players became healthy and moved off the injury list.
Buffalo’s aggressive offense often threw on first down and made a moderate amount of deep passes. It was ranked among the NFL’s top five teams in explosive play rate.
The Bills’ offense included a solid rushing attack and an excellent passing game.
QB Josh Allen has had three strong games since mid-season. In games versus the 49ers, Steelers, and Broncos, Allen connected on 68.3% of his passes, threw eight TDs, one interception, and earned a 110.2 passer rating.
Allen passed for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs by Week 16. However, during the 2019 season, he threw for only around 3,000 yards and 20 touchdowns.
Another key factor in the game was that WR Stefon Diggs wasn’t covered by Patriots cornerback Stephon Gilmore on injured reserve (quad). Instead, he was covered by J.C. Jackson.
Diggs helped significantly improve the Bills’ offense, including QB Allen averaging one yard more per attempt than last year.
The Bills’ defense continued to improve over the regular season and was solid overall. Meanwhile, the Bills’ pass defense was better than the run defense.
The Bills kept three of four opponents under 20 points. The defense also forced six turnovers in four games. During the season, they faced QBs like:
- Nick Mullens
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Drew Lock
Two Bills defenders earned 100-plus tackles during the regular season. They included linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and safety Jordan Poyer.
Poyer led Buffalo with 112 tackles, fourth in the AFC. He was also the only NFL player with:
- 110-plus tackles (career-high)
- Two sacks
- Two forced fumbles
- Two interceptions
Edmunds became the first NFL player in league history to have two seasons of 100-plus tackles by the age of 21 and made back-to-back Pro Bowls. He led Buffalo in tackles last year (115).
New England Patriots
The Pats entered the Patriots vs. Bills game with a 6-8 overall record and a 4-2 home record at Gillette Stadium. Since 2001, the Pats have had an incredible 131-27 home record.
The Patriots needed to win their last two games to avoid having a losing record. New England hadn’t done that since Belichick’s first year coaching the Patriots in 2000.
The Patriots’ rushing game remained good during the season, but its passing attack struggled.
QB Cam Newton had five passing TDs and 10 INTs for the year and was sacked on a high percentage of dropbacks.
Meanwhile, WR Jakobi Meyers was the most productive Patriots receiver. Meyers led the Patriots with 616 yards on 49 catches.
He also converted 31 first downs. In Week 8 versus the Bills, Meyers had 58 passing yards on six catches.
Meanwhile, WR Damiere Byrd ranked second among Patriots players for the season, with 590 passing yards on 45 receptions and one TD. In the Week 8 matchup, he had 39 receiving yards.
Injured wide receivers included Damien Harris and Sony Michel.
RB James White had the lowest yards per reception since his first year.
The Patriots’ defensive line struggled all season and the unit was last in the NFL in rush defense.
Meanwhile, the Patriots special teams ranked first in the NFL, which helped the team defeat the Arizona Cardinals.
Bills vs. Patriots: Past Betting Trends
Week 16 (2020)
The Bills were favored in the Week 8 and Week 16 matchups versus the Patriots. New England was the 7-point underdog. The point spread was the team’s most lopsided spread against an AFC East team in 19 years.
This game was also the seventh time in the last 20 years that the Patriots weren’t favored versus the Bills.
Patriots head coach Bill Belichick had a 35-6 record versus the Bills. The NFL Week 16 (2020) gave the Bills the first chance to sweep the Patriots since 1999.
Bills vs. Patriots: All-Time Series Facts
As of September 2021, the Patriots and Bills have gone head-to-head 122 times, including one postseason game. New England won 76 games, and Buffalo won 45 games. The teams have also tied once.
The Bills vs. Patriots matchup occurred for the first time in 1960. In that game, the Buffalo Bills defeated the then-Boston Patriots 13-0.
The only playoff game involving the two teams occurred in the 1963 AFL Divisional Playoff game. The Patriots defeated the Bills 26-8.
Bills vs. Patriots: Team History
Greatest Games
1963 AFL Divisional Playoffs: Patriots 26, Bills 8
In over seven decades of Bills vs. Patriots matchups, this game has been the most impactful in terms of the playoffs. The snowy game took place at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo, New York.
The Patriots led 16-0 at halftime and ultimately defeated the Bills 26-8. Boston scored two TDs and four field goals in the game.
The Patriots eventually lost to the Chargers in the AFL Championship game. San Diego dismantled Boston 51-10 in the city’s only major sports title as of September 2021.
All-Time Noteworthy Players
Buffalo Bills
- Bruce Smith
- Jim Kelly
- O.J. Simpson
- Andre Reed
- Joe DeLamielleure
- Steve Tasker
- Thurman Thomas
- Jack Kemp
- Cornelius Bennett
- Cookie Gilchrist
New England Patriots
- Tom Brady
- John Hannah
- Rob Gronkowski
- Andre Tippett
- Ty Law
- Richard Seymour
- Mike Haynes
- Wes Welker
- Vince Wilfork
- Logan Mankins
Bills vs. Patriots: How to Bet
Teasers: Bettors can move each wager to a more favorable line. It’s important to note that taking this step lowers the football picks’ odds.
Over/Under: This is also known as a totals bet. It projects the total or combined score of the two teams. Over/under bets are popular in pro entities and leagues like:
- NFL
- NHL
- NBA
- MLB.
- Euro 2020
A bettor must pick whether the final combined score will be over or under that set number.
Parlays: These bets include multiple parts or “legs” that require bettors to win each leg to win the entire bet. Some examples include a 3-, 5-, and 7-leg parlay.
Proposition Bet: This side bet is also known as a prop bet. You can bet on a particular event or individual player. Most prop bets are on individual players.
Point Spread: The number of points by which an NFL team wins or loses determines the result of these bets. A minus sign (-) indicates the favorite, and a plus sign (+) indicates the underdog.
Here’s an example:
Bills -6 vs. Patriots +6
In this scenario, the Bills are favored by 6 points. A Bills bet wins if they win by seven or more points. A Patriots bet wins if they lose by fewer than six points or win outright.
If the Bills win by exactly 6 points, then the bet is a “push” or tie. All bettors receive their original bet back.
Live Betting: Bettors can place bets after the NFL game begins airing on networks like ESPN. They can also make bets during different game stages, such as the first half or second half. The odds often change as the game unfolds.
Moneyline: This is a straight-up bet that requires you to pick the NFL game’s winner.
When placing bets on the Patriots-Bills line, you have several options. In fact, you can also make these bets on games with other NFL teams, including:
- Arizona Cardinals
- Atlanta Falcons
- Baltimore Ravens
- Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
- Dallas Cowboys
- Denver Broncos
- Detroit Lions
- Green Bay Packers
- Houston Texans
- Indianapolis Colts
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Los Angeles Rams
- Miami Dolphins
- Minnesota Vikings
- New Orleans Saints
- New York Giants
- New York Jets
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- San Francisco 49ers
- Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tennessee Titans
- Washington Football Team